The REDUCE metagram: a comprehensive prediction tool for determining the utility of dutasteride chemoprevention in men at risk for prostate cancer

INTRODUCTION 5-alpha reductase inhibitors can reduce the risk of prostate cancer (PCa) but can be associated with significant side effects. A library of nomograms which predict the risk of clinical endpoints relevant to dutasteride treatment may help determine if chemoprevention is suited to the individual patient. METHODS Data from the REDUCE trial was used to identify predictive factors for 9 endpoints relevant to dutasteride treatment. Using the treatment and placebo groups from the biopsy cohort, Cox proportional hazards (PH) and competing risks regression (CRR) models were used to build 18 nomograms, whose predictive ability was measured by concordance index (CI) and calibration plots. RESULTS A total of 18 nomograms assessing the risks of cancer, high grade cancer, high grade prostatic intraepithelial neoplasia (HGPIN), atypical small acinar proliferation (ASAP), erectile dysfunction (ED), acute urinary retention (AUR), gynecomastia, urinary tract infection (UTI) and BPH-related surgery either on or off dutasteride were created. The nomograms for cancer, high grade cancer, ED, AUR, and BPH-related surgery demonstrated good discrimination and calibration while those for gynecomastia, UTI, HGPIN, and ASAP predicted no better than random chance. CONCLUSIONS To aid patients in determining whether the benefits of dutasteride use outweigh the risks, we have developed a comprehensive metagram that can generate individualized risks of 9 outcomes relevant to men considering chemoprevention. Better models based on more predictive markers are needed for some of the endpoints but the current metagram demonstrates potential as a tool for patient counseling and decision-making that is accessible, intuitive, and clinically relevant.